Type 1 diabetes 19

Type 2 diabetes 21

Diabetic complications 23

Type 1 25

Type 2 25

Introduction 43

Product launches and discontinued products 43

Reported side effects of marketed drugs 44

Innovation in glucose testing 44

Cell transplantation and innovative therapies 45

Innovation in drug delivery technology 47

Human insulins 51

Fast-acting insulin analogs 51

Intermediate insulin analogs 53

Long-acting insulin analogs 54

Intermediate and fast-acting insulin analogs 56

Intermediate and long-acting insulin analogs 58

Animal insulins 59

Insulin devices 60

Sales forecast for human insulin and analogs 60

Thiazolidiniones (TZDs) 63

Sulfonylureas 65

Biguanides 67

Combined sulphonylurea and biguanide antidiabetics 68

Alpha-glucosidase inhibitors 70

Thiozolidiniones (TZDs) and other oral antidiabetics 72

Other oral antidiabetics 74

Sales forecast for OADs 75

Non-invasive human insulin 81

New drug classes in the OAD market 83

Inhaled Insulins 83

Exubera 84

AERx iDMS 86

AIR 87

Oral insulin 88

Emisphere Oral insulin 89

HIM2 89

Insulin patches 90

Profiles of key OAD pipeline products 91

Dual PPAR agonists 91

Pargluva 91

GLP-1 agonists and DPP IV agonists 92

Byetta 92

Galvus 92

Sitagliptin 93

Amylinomimetic agents 93

Factors affecting forecasts 94

New product launches 95

Patent expiry dates 96

Clinical trial results 98

Human insulin sales forecasts 99

OAD’s sales forecasts 101

Antidiabetic sales focus 107

Marketed product portfolio 108

NovoRapid/ NovoLog 109

Novolin/Insulatard/Actrapid/Mixtard 110

Prandin/NovoNorm 111

Levemir 112

R&D pipeline analysis 112

NovoMix 50 & 70 113

AERx iDMS/ NN1998 113

Strategic analysis 114

Drivers of growth 115

Resistors of growth 116

Antidiabetic sales focus 117

Marketed diabetes product portfolio 118

Actos 119

Basen 120

TCV-116 121

TAK-428 122

TAK-128 122

Drivers of growth 123

Resistors of growth 123

Antidiabetic sales focus 125

Marketed diabetes product portfolio 125

Lantus 126

Amaryl 127

R&D pipeline analysis 129

Acomplia 129

Exubera 130

Strategic analysis 131

Drivers of growth 132

Resistors of growth 132

Antidiabetic sales focus 133

Marketed product portfolio 134

Avandia 135

Avandamet 136

R&D pipeline analysis 137

Strategic analysis 137

Drivers of growth 138

Resistors of growth 138

Antidiabetic sales focus 139

Marketed product portfolio 140

Humalog 141

Humulin 142

Actos 143

R&D pipeline analysis 144

Arxxant 144

Pulmonary insulin (AIR) 145

Strategic analysis 146

Drivers of growth 147

Resistors of growth 147

Antidiabetic sales focus 149

Marketed product portfolio 149

Diamicron 150

R&D pipeline analysis 151

S-15261 152

Glufast 152

Strategic analysis 152

Drivers of growth 153

Resistors of growth 153

Antidiabetic sales focus 155

Marketed product portfolio 155

Glucophage 156

Glucophage XR 157

R&D pipeline analysis 158

Strategic analysis 159

Drivers of growth 159

Resistors of growth 159

Antidiabetic sales focus 160

Marketed product portfolio 161

Precose 162

R&D pipeline analysis 163

Strategic analysis 163

Drivers of growth 163

Resistors of growth 163

Antidiabetic sales focus 164

Marketed product portfolio 165

Starlix 166

Metformin HCl 166

R&D pipeline analysis 166

Galvus 166

Strategic analysis 167

Drivers of growth 167

Resistors of growth 167

Antidiabetic sales focus 169

Marketed product portfolio 169

R&D pipeline analysis 170

Pargluva 171

Strategic analysis 171

Drivers of growth 171

Resistors of growth 171

Figure 1.1: Estimated number of new cases of diagnosed type 2 diabetes in people aged 20 or over, by age group in the US, 2005 27

Figure 1.2: Diabetes mortality in the US, 1999-2003 28

Figure 2.3: Global diabetes market share by geography, 2005 37

Figure 2.4: Sales of types of antidiabetic brands, 2004-5 38

Figure 2.5: Breakdown of global diabetes sales by drug class, 2004-5 39

Figure 2.6: Competitive dynamics of the leading 10 brands in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 42

Figure 2.7: Innovation in drug delivery technology, 2005-6 47

Figure 2.8: Competitive dynamics of the global insulin market, 2004-5 50

Figure 2.9: Competitive dynamics of OADs in the global diabetes 62

Figure 3.10: Positive and negative factors affecting forecasted sales of antidiabetics 94

Figure 3.11: Expected patent expiry dates for major antidiabetics in the US, Japan and EU, 2006-2015 97

Figure 4.12: Competitive dynamics of the leading players in the global diabetes market, 2005 105

Figure 4.13: Novo Nordisk’s antidiabetic sales, 2005 107

Figure 4.14: Takeda’s antidiabetic sales, 2005 118

Figure 4.15: Sanofi-Aventis’ antidiabetic sales, 2005 125

Figure 4.16: GSK’s antidiabetic sales, 2005 134

Figure 4.17: Lilly’s antidiabetic sales, 2005 140

Figure 4.18: Servier’s antidiabetic sales, 2005 149

Figure 4.19: Merck KGaA’s antidiabetic sales, 2005 155

Figure 4.20: Bayer’s antidiabetic sales, 2005 161

Figure 4.21: Novartis’s antidiabetic sales, 2005 165

Figure 4.22: Bristol-Myers Squibb’s antidiabetic sales, 2005 169

List of Tables

Table 1.1: Prevalence of overweight and obese adults by country, 2005-11 22

Table 1.2: Prevalence of Type 1 & 2 diabetes in the 7 major markets, 2004-5 24

Table 1.3: Prevalence of Type 1 diabetes in the 7 major markets, 2005-11 25

Table 1.4: Prevalence of Type 2 diabetes in the 7 major markets, 2005-11 26

Table 2.5: Global diabetes market sales by country/region, 2001-5 36

Table 2.6: Leading brands in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 41

Table 2.7: Characteristics of the key types of insulin 51

Table 2.8: Fast-acting insulin analogs in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 52

Table 2.9: Intermediate insulin analogs in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 53

Table 2.10: Long-acting insulin analogs in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 55

Table 2.11: Intermediate and fast-acting insulin analogs in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 57

Table 2.12: Intermediate and long-acting insulin analogs in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 59

Table 2.13: Insulin devices in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 60

Table 2.14: Human insulin and analogs sales forecast, 2005-11 61

Table 2.15: Thiazolidiniones in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 63

Table 2.16: Sulfonylureas in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 65

Table 2.17: Biguanides in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 67

Table 2.18: Combined sulphonylurea and biguanide antidiabetics in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 69

Table 2.19: Alpha-glucosidase inhibitors in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 71

Table 2.20: Glitazone and other oral antidiabetics in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 73

Table 2.21: Other oral antidiabetics in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 74

Table 2.22: OAD sales forecast, 2005-11 76

Table 2.23: Other drugs in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 77

Table 3.24: Expected product launch dates, 2005-11 95

Table 3.25: Current diabetes trials, 2000-9 99

Table 3.26: Human insulin and analogs sales forecast, 2005-11 100

Table 3.27: OAD sales forecast, 2005-11 102

Table 4.28: Leading players in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 106

Table 4.29: Novo Nordisk’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5 108

Table 4.30: Novo Nordisk’s diabetes R&D product pipeline, 2006 113

Table 4.31: Takeda’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5 118

Table 4.32: Takeda’s diabetes R&D product portfolio, 2006 121

Table 4.33: Sanofi-Aventis’ diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5 126

Table 4.34: Sanofi-Aventis’ diabetes R&D product pipeline, 2006 129

Table 4.35: GSK’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5 135

Table 4.36: GSK’s diabetes R&D product pipeline, 2006 137

Table 4.37: Lilly’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5 141

Table 4.38: Lilly’s diabetes R&D product portfolio, 2006 144

Table 4.39: Servier’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5 150

Table 4.40: Servier’s diabetes R&D product portfolio, 2006 151

Table 4.41: Merck KGaA’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5 156

Table 4.42: Merck KGaA’s diabetes R&D product portfolio, 2006 158

Table 4.43: Bayer’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5 161

Table 4.44: Bayer’s diabetes R&D product pipeline, 2006 163

Table 4.45: Novartis’ diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5 165

Table 4.46: Novartis’ diabetes R&D product pipeline, 2006 166

Table 4.47: Bristol-Myers Squibb’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5 170

Table 4.48: Bristol-Myers Squibb’s diabetes R&D product pipeline, 2006 170