Press Release:
Press Release
News Article February 2005
Although the origins of DNA sequencing, as we know it today, date back to the 1970's, in the last eight years the field has gone through one of the most amazing transformations ever seen in science. Most people recognize that the completion of the Human Genome Project was one of the key events that stimulated this phenomenon. However, the Project acted only to define what the real barriers were to fully utilizing genetic knowledge. The concurrent invention of microarrays and biochips allowed scientists to rapidly unravel DNA codes.
According to a soon-to-be-released report RB-179 The DNA Sequencing Business from Business Communications Company, Inc. projected sales for the worldwide DNA sequencing and proteomics markets are expected to rise at an AAGR (average annual growth rate) of 17.6% from $7.8 billion in 2004 to $17.5 billion in 2009.
Sales are comprised of existing products such as microarrays, and biochips as well as new products including test kits for detecting airborne chemical warfare agents and protein structure modeling tools. Beyond 2009, growth is expected to continue as new applications and products are developed and global market penetration continues.
Drug discovery and healthcare are currently two of the largest market sectors, representing respectively some 46% and 20% of revenues in 2004. Drug discovery will continue to grow as the industry learns how best to integrate these technologies into their product development and validation procedures. Here the benefits are clearly reducing the time and cost of bringing a drug to market. Growth in the healthcare sector is expected to arise from a compelling need to reduce the overall cost of healthcare by means of early diagnosis of diseases. Given that only a small fraction of the world's population will initially benefit from this technology, it is apparent the sector will continue to grow well beyond 2009 as the technology diffuses into the rest of the world.
The food and renewable resource sector will also continue to grow at a modest pace. Here the motivation is primarily to produce genetically altered food products offering better nutritional benefits and lower product costs. Other benefits include monitoring foods for bacterial contamination and improvements in food processing methods. Similar comments hold for lumber and plants such as cotton or flax.
The environment market sector has only begun to tap into the technology benefits derived from these technologies and the advent of portable monitors capable of detecting the presence of harmful materials in the soil or water should have profound effects on pollution control. Developing better databases regarding biodiversity is another global objective that should benefit from DNA sequencing technology.
The basic research sector, which includes scientists of all types who use DNA sequencing technology, obviously will grow given the possibility of new fields of research that may emerge. One area of particular interest is to use DNA to self assemble nano-sized structures including electronic circuits.
Finally comes the "Other" category which includes DNA fingerprinting, paternity lawsuit testing and devices to detect chemical and biological warfare agents is, given the global political environment, clearly a growth industry. International law enforcement agencies are already compiling genetic databases of criminal offenders and there is no reason to believe that the practice will not grow with time.
Given the intense growth of patent filings there is no reason to believe that there will be a slowdown in the growth of the DNA industry. The technology is being embraced in so many areas that no saturation effects are on the horizon. There are however, in the case of some applications, many different approaches to solving the same problem including microarrays and bead platforms leading to the conclusion that some of these technologies will displace others completely or force them to retreat to niche application areas. This will probably happen in the next few years leading to major shakeouts in the industry in terms of the numbers of companies participating.
Proteomics is even younger than DNA sequencing and although applications are more limited, the impact of the technology could prove to be enormous. Overall, there are few true "killer applications" in the sense that so many have equal importance and none have captured the attention of the business world in truly dramatic fashion. Instead the industry grows more by a diffusion process as the technology gradually replaces older laboratory methods. However, there are still impediments to growth simply because the use of the technology changes so many existing processes that extensive retooling may be required, and researchers are cautious about quickly embracing such change. For example, the use of the latest DNA sequencing technologies may not be compatible with existing equipment and hence researchers may be reluctant to invest in new and complex diagnostic tools.
Regulatory issues may also impede the growth of some application sectors including new drug efficacy standards that might arise from the use of DNA testing. Lastly, public opposition to genetically modified foods is already discouraging companies from investing in certain types of products.
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| Source: BCC, Inc. |
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