The Diabetes Market Outlook to 2011

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Health Markets:

The Diabetes Market Outlook to 2011

Business Insights
Market Briefing May 2006

Diabetes mellitus is a chronic metabolic disorder that is caused by a failure of the body to produce insulin and/or an inability of the body to respond adequately to circulating insulin; type 1 diabetes occurs most often in children or young adults and accounts for 5-10% of the diagnosed diabetes patient population. Type 2 diabetes, or adult-onset diabetes, accounts for 90–95% of diagnosed diabetes cases worldwide, typically developing in middle-aged adults. There are several risk factors associated with type 2 diabetes including age, obesity, high blood pressure, genetics, level of exercise, and a history of cardiac disease.

Type 2 diabetes is more prevalent than type 1 and is growing at a faster rate across the 7 major markets, with a forecast prevalence of 49.2m people in 2011, compared to 39.4m people in 2005. Drivers for increased type 2 prevalence include the aging demographic profile and an increase in obesity. Diabetes is the sixth leading cause of death in the US (based on number of death certificates, NIDDK).

The global diabetes market was worth $18.6bn in 2005, which was an 11.5% increase from 2004 sales of $16.6bn. The US has the dominant share in the global diabetes market, with 49.6% of 2005 global sales. The large US market share is mainly due to the large population and the high prevalence of diabetes, the increasing incidence of diabetes associated with Western diets and an aging population. OADs represent 58% of the global diabetes market in 2005, with the remainder of sales being from insulins and analogs (40.1%) and other drugs with 1.9%. However, insulins and analogs have seen the largest sales growth at 17.3% in 2005. There has been a high level of innovation in drug delivery technology within the diabetes market during 2005-6. Key events include advances in inhaled insulins, funding into insulin pills, patch technology and pain free needles for injection.

The top 10 leading antidiabetic brands consist of 6 OADs (Actos, Avandia, Amaryl, Basen, metformin HCl, and Avandamet) and 4 insulins (Lantus, Humalog, NovoLog/NovoRapid and Novolin 70/30/actraphane).

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