New Drug Futures: Vaccines Chapter

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Pharmaceutical:

Espicom Business Intelligence
Management Report May 2006

ROTAVIRUS
It is estimated that all children over five years old are infected with rotavirus, however the severity of infection may vary between individuals. Acute gastroenteritis is responsible for around 2 million hospitalisations worldwide and 223,000 hospitalisations in industrialised countries annually. Rotavirus is the leading cause of death in children younger than five years of age and accounts for 20% to 25% of all deaths in this age group.

ZOSTER VIRUS
It is estimated that over 90% of adults in the US acquired chicken pox virus as children and between 15-20% experience reactivation during their lifetime. An estimated 800,000 US citizens are diagnosed with herpes zoster virus which may result in severe post herpetic neuralgia in 50%+ of cases.

CERVICAL CANCER VACCINES
Cervical cancer is a major global health problem, with nearly 500,000 new cases occurring each year worldwide. It is the second most common cancer and the third leading cause of cancer deaths in women worldwide.

LUNG CANCER VACCINES
Lung cancer affects more than 1.2 million patients a year, with around 500,000 in the US, Europe and Japan. Non-small cell lung cancer is one of the leading causes of death, resulting in the worst survival rates for all cancers and killing more patients than breast, colon and prostate cancer together.

.. Answering key business questions

Merck and GSK are fighting for the lion's share of the as yet unexploited multi billion US$ cervical cancer vaccine market. What differentiates the two products and how might this affect their sales?

Dendreon has an open market with its prostate cancer vaccine Provenge. But does it have the sales experience and marketing muscle to achieve sales estimated at US$799 million in 2011?

Will GSK/Avant Immunotherapuetics' monovalent vaccine derived from human rotavirus strain Rotarix 2-dose regimen see off competition from Merck's Rotateq in the US$2 billion rotavirus market?

In a sector free of competition, Merck faces considerable marketing challenges for its Herpes Zoster vaccine Zostamax. What are they?

Unique competitor/product evaluation
A key feature of this report is the unique assessment made of products and companies that evaluates not only their pharmacological profile and clinical benefits, but also assesses their chances of reaching the market. Each product is assessed to see if:

It has new/novel late phase clinical data (Phase II to III);
It has been highlighted in company reports or R&D presentations as key drivers for the company;
It has a novel mechanism of action that make them stand out amongst their competitors – not a 'me too' drug;
Its approval could drastically change the course of treatment of a disease, i.e. a reformulation improving compliance, improved efficacy improving clinical outcome, stop or reverse the course of a disease etc.
It has a relatively high chance of entering the marketplace by 2010.

This chapter covers: Current Market Size
Addressable Patient Population
Current Treatments
Sales Drivers
Sales Breakers Future Treatments - Early Stage
Market Dynamics - Winners and Losers
Key launches to 2011
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Products
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Companies

About the Author
Dr Cheryl Barton is a highly regarded independent consultant with over 15 years research and business analysis experience. Following her senior research positions in academia and seven years with Merck, in which she was responsible for research projects ranging from Alzheimer's Disease to schizophrenia, Dr Barton joined Dutch investment bank ABN Amro NV as a senior equity analyst. At ABN Amro NV she was lead analyst on major pharmaceutical companies such as Roche and Sanofi-Synthélabo, and assessed the potential impact of new drug development on European Stocks.

In 2002, Dr Barton founded a consulting business (www.pharmavision.co.uk) to provide independent, tailor-made, pharmaceutical thematic research to investment houses and pharmaceutical companies. The research reports combine independent scientific analysis with patient-based models to forecast the potential sales growth of key drugs in clinical development. This chapter of New Drug Futures evaluates, compares and contrasts the prospects for the compounds that will revolutionise the pharmaceutical industry over the next 5 years and beyond in the vaccines sector. The report includes unique sales forecasts by major product.

The full 400-page report, evaluates, compares and contrasts the prospects for the compounds that will revolutionise the pharmaceutical industry over the next 5 years and beyond. The report covers 8 key therapy areas (alimentary/metabolic, anti-infectives, cancer, cardiovascular, CNS, musculoskeletal, respiratory, vaccines) and includes unique sales forecasts by major product. Click here for more information. This chapter is available separately.

We estimate that vaccines generated sales of over US$10.6 billion in 2005, with over 50% derived from traditional, domestic paediatric vaccines and the development of novel vaccines that can command price premiums.

The market is beginning to turn around after a period of slow growth and it is forecast to be worth nearly US$20 billion by 2010. Growth will be driven principally by the adolescent and adult vaccine segment of the market as well as the development of therapeutic vaccines.

The market has attracted the attention of eleven pharma players, with six of these accounting for around 90% of vaccine sales by value.

Number of pages - 1275

For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com

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