New Drug Futures: Anti-Infective Chapter

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New Drug Futures: Anti-Infective Chapter

Espicom Business Intelligence
Management Report May 2006

ANTIBIOTIC SALES
We estimate the antibiotic market is currently worth nearly US$31 billion, equivalent to around 5% of total global pharmaceutical sales. The market for anti-MRSA antibiotics is expected to reach US$2 billion by 2006, driven by the sales of Pfizer's Zyvox which is available as IV or oral formulation and generated sales of US$618 million in 2005. In contrast, the market for non-MRSA hospital antibiotics is currently valued at around $6 billion.

ANTIVIRAL SALES
We forecast that nearly US$9.8 billion was spent globally on the treatment of antiviral medicines in 2005. The largest segment of this market is derived from the treatment of HIV, with reported sales of around US$7 billion. The US market accounts for around 60%, equating to over US$5 billion, whilst in Europe, France has the largest market value with revenues of around US$600 million. HIV-reverse transcription inhibitors were amongst the top 20 leading therapeutic drug classes (based on 2005 US sales) generating global sales of US$5 billion with products such GSK's Combivir.

The second largest segment of the antiviral market is derived from the treatment of hepatitis B/C which reported sales of around US$3 billion in 2005, generated from combination therapies (pegylated interferon and ribavarin) for the treatment of HCV. This market is dominated by two players: Roche which commands over 60% of the US and global pegylated interferon market through the sale of Pegasys/Copegus (US$1.9 billion in 2005) and Schering-Plough through the sale of PegIntron/ Rebetrol (US$1.1 billion in 2005).

ANTIFUNGAL SALES
We forecast that antifungal medicines generated nearly US$4.0 billion of sales per annum in 2005.

.. Answering key business questions

Which antifungal agent is expected to achieve peak sales of US$1.2 billion?

Who will win the race to exploit the novel anti-retroviral CCR5 inhibitors?

If approved, Merck's MK-0518 will be first in class of novel integrase inhibitors to reach the market. What might its market value be and when will it be launched?

Unique competitor/product evaluation
A key feature of this report is the unique assessment made of products and companies that evaluates not only their pharmacological profile and clinical benefits, but also assesses their chances of reaching the market. Each product is assessed to see if:

It has new/novel late phase clinical data (Phase II to III);
It has been highlighted in company reports or R&D presentations as key drivers for the company;
It has a novel mechanism of action that make them stand out amongst their competitors – not a 'me too' drug;
Its approval could drastically change the course of treatment of a disease, i.e. a reformulation improving compliance, improved efficacy improving clinical outcome, stop or reverse the course of a disease etc.
It has a relatively high chance of entering the marketplace by 2010.

This chapter covers: Current Market Size
Addressable Patient Population
Current Treatments
Sales Drivers
Sales Breakers Future Treatments - Early Stage
Market Dynamics - Winners and Losers
Key launches to 2011
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Products
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Companies

About the Author
Dr Cheryl Barton is a highly regarded independent consultant with over 15 years research and business analysis experience. Following her senior research positions in academia and seven years with Merck, in which she was responsible for research projects ranging from Alzheimer's Disease to schizophrenia, Dr Barton joined Dutch investment bank ABN Amro NV as a senior equity analyst. At ABN Amro NV she was lead analyst on major pharmaceutical companies such as Roche and Sanofi-Synthélabo, and assessed the potential impact of new drug development on European Stocks.

In 2002, Dr Barton founded a consulting business (www.pharmavision.co.uk) to provide independent, tailor-made, pharmaceutical thematic research to investment houses and pharmaceutical companies. The research reports combine independent scientific analysis with patient-based models to forecast the potential sales growth of key drugs in clinical development.

This chapter of New Drug Futures evaluates, compares and contrasts the prospects for the compounds that will revolutionise the pharmaceutical industry over the next 5 years and beyond in the anti-infective sector. The report includes unique sales forecasts by major product.

The full 400-page report, evaluates, compares and contrasts the prospects for the compounds that will revolutionise the pharmaceutical industry over the next 5 years and beyond. The report covers 8 key therapy areas (alimentary/metabolic, anti-infectives, cancer, cardiovascular, CNS, musculoskeletal, respiratory, vaccines) and includes unique sales forecasts by major product. Click here for more information. This chapter is available separately.

The anti-infectives market is the fifth largest therapeutic category. We estimate that anti-infectives grossed sales of US$28.5 billion in 2005, with a further US$16 billion being derived from hospital-based use and OTC. The majority of prescription-based sales were derived from the US (around 50%) compared to 22% in Europe and Japan. However, growth in Europe at over 5% exceeded that of the US and Japan compared with around 3%.

Number of pages - 1269

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