New Drug Futures: Respiratory Chapter

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New Drug Futures: Respiratory Chapter

Espicom Business Intelligence
Management Report May 2006

ASTHMA
Asthma affects over 100 million people worldwide. Approximately 5%-10% of adults and 10%-15% of children suffer from asthma globally and it continues to grow at around 5%-6% per annum. Over 18 million Americans have asthma, but only around 60% of US sufferers are treated. US asthma prevalence rates have risen by almost 50% in the ten years ending 1994 and are expected to increase by 20%-50% every ten years.

COPD
COPD is the fastest-growing cause of death amongst the world's most advanced economies and is responsible for over 2.7 million deaths worldwide. It is estimated that there are up to 20 million sufferers in Japan (the highest cigarette consumption per capita of the world) and 7-10 million and 8-12 million in the US and Europe, respectively. Unfortunately, only around 40% of US COPD sufferers are adequately treated and, by 2025, the World Health Organisation estimates it will be the third leading cause of death in the world.

.. Answering key business questions

Symbicort provides combination therapy for COPD and asthma in a single dose inhaler – what must AstraZeneca do to achieve sales estimated to be over US$3 billion in a market packed with competitors?

GSK's anti-interleukin-5 humanised MAb is indicated for severe asthma, but does it offer potential in the long-term treatment of the disease?

Sales of the Altana/sanofi-aventis drug Alvesco could reach US$892 million in 2012, but only if it can get approval for other indications and combination therapy. What is the development timeline for this product?

Unique competitor/product evaluation
A key feature of this report is the unique assessment made of products and companies that evaluates not only their pharmacological profile and clinical benefits, but also assesses their chances of reaching the market. Each product is assessed to see if:

It has new/novel late phase clinical data (Phase II to III);
It has been highlighted in company reports or R&D presentations as key drivers for the company;
It has a novel mechanism of action that make them stand out amongst their competitors – not a 'me too' drug;
Its approval could drastically change the course of treatment of a disease, i.e. a reformulation improving compliance, improved efficacy improving clinical outcome, stop or reverse the course of a disease etc.
It has a relatively high chance of entering the marketplace by 2010.

This chapter covers: Current Market Size
Addressable Patient Population
Current Treatments
Sales Drivers
Sales Breakers Future Treatments - Early Stage
Market Dynamics - Winners and Losers
Key launches to 2011
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Products
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Companies

About the Author
Dr Cheryl Barton is a highly regarded independent consultant with over 15 years research and business analysis experience. Following her senior research positions in academia and seven years with Merck, in which she was responsible for research projects ranging from Alzheimer's Disease to schizophrenia, Dr Barton joined Dutch investment bank ABN Amro NV as a senior equity analyst. At ABN Amro NV she was lead analyst on major pharmaceutical companies such as Roche and Sanofi-Synthélabo, and assessed the potential impact of new drug development on European Stocks.

In 2002, Dr Barton founded a consulting business (www.pharmavision.co.uk) to provide independent, tailor-made, pharmaceutical thematic research to investment houses and pharmaceutical companies. The research reports combine independent scientific analysis with patient-based models to forecast the potential sales growth of key drugs in clinical development. This chapter of New Drug Futures evaluates, compares and contrasts the prospects for the compounds that will revolutionise the pharmaceutical industry over the next 5 years and beyond in the respiratory sector. The report includes unique sales forecasts by major product.

The full 400-page report, evaluates, compares and contrasts the prospects for the compounds that will revolutionise the pharmaceutical industry over the next 5 years and beyond. The report covers 8 key therapy areas (alimentary/metabolic, anti-infectives, cancer, cardiovascular, CNS, musculoskeletal, respiratory, vaccines) and includes unique sales forecasts by major product. Click here for more information. This chapter is available separately.

The Respiratory market is the fourth largest therapeutic category by sales and generated nearly US$32.4 billion (+8% YoY) in 2005. Sales grew steadily in the US, which accounted for around 54% of global respiratory sales, driven by growth in Advair, GlaxoSmithKline's leading combination therapy for the treatment of asthma/COPD and Merck's Singulair for the treatment of asthma and allergic rhinitis. Sales in Europe are now growing steadily; around 5% following the uptake of new treatments such as Symbicort (AstraZeneca) and Alvesco (Altana/sanofi-aventis) which have yet to be approved in the US markets.

Over 50% of respiratory drug sales were spent on asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), the remainder is spent on other respiratory diseases such as allergic rhinitis, coughs and colds, cystic fibrosis and pneumonia. We estimate that the asthma market was worth US$13.5 billion in 2005 and dominated by the sale of inhaled corticosteroids. We forecast that the current market for COPD drug therapy is worth nearly US$4.4 billion per annum and it is predicted to increase to nearly US$7 billion by 2010.

Number of pages - 1274

For full details, please email jenniferc@cmsinfo.com

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