Medical Markets:

Espicom
Management Report  March 2005

The full 325-page report covers 6 key CNS therapy areas; the information below is specific to just one chapter. This chapter is available for purchase separately.

Sleep Disorders
Focusing on Insomnia
The insomnia market is on the verge of considerable growth due to the launch of new formulations of leading drugs, new classes of drugs with improved side-effect profiles and patient dynamics – an ageing patient population. This chapter focuses on the developments in the insomnia market and the substantial changes beginning to take place. New formulations are reaching the market and leading brand products face competition from generics and from the new GABA-A receptor agonists: Lunesta (Sepracor) to launched in late 2004, Indiplon (Pfizer/Neurocrine) and Gaboxadol (Lundbeck/Merck) in mid-2005 and early 2007, respectively.

Sleep disorders cover a range of problems, the best known types being insomnia, sleep apnoea and restless legs syndrome. Insomnia is the most prevalent sleep disorder and it is estimated that it affects over 37 million US citizens and over 100 million people worldwide with approximately 25% of elderly people and 15% of the general population suffering from the condition. Studies suggest that less than 20% of insomniacs seek help and less than 20% of sufferers are prescribed a medication from their doctor.

Global insomnia market
Approximately US$2.5 billion is currently spent on hypnotics and sedatives in the treatment of insomnia the 10th largest segment of CNS drug sales. The global market for insomnia drug sales is unevenly distributed. In 2004, the US insomnia market accounted for 59% of the global market compared to 30% in Europe and 11% in the rest of world (largely Japan). This is largely due to the pricing differential between the European and the US market.

GABA-A receptor agonists (non-benzodiazepines) will continue to remain the cornerstone for the treatment of both acute and chronic insomnia. However, the launch of several new products over the next 3 years will help to increase patient awareness, particularly in the elderly, and help the market to grow to US$4.8 billion by 2010.

Key questions answered by this chapter include:
What are the opportunities in treating chronic insomnia over the next 5 years?
How will sanofi-aventis protect Ambien revenues in the future?
What will be the leading treatments in 2008?
Why are the prospects for sanofi-aventis/Sepracor's Lunesta looking good?
What threat do new therapies such as Takeda's Ramelteon, the first in a novel class of melatonin-1 receptor agonists, present to the market?

Tables Charts & Figures
US market share for insomnia drugs (Ambien & Sonata) 2004.
European market share for insomnia drugs (Ambien & Imovane) 2004.
Japanese market share for insomnia drugs (Ambien & Amobane) 2004.
Patient population forecast to 2010 by type showing % diagnosed and treated (acute & chronic).
Comparison of leading GABA-A receptor agonists by launch date indication, use and ADR. Covers Ambien (sanofi-aventis) Sonata (Wyeth) and Imovane (sanofi-aventis).
Possible causes of insomnia.
Discontinued insomnia drugs.
Drugs in R&D: 12 Phase I-III drugs listed by phase, developer and class.
US patent expiry of leading drugs.
Forecast of global drug sales by year to 2010: Ambien (sanofi-aventis) Sonata (Wyeth) and Imovane (sanofi-aventis).
SWOT analysis of current therapies.
Forecast global sales by year to 2010 of new drugs: Indiplon (Pfizer/Neurocrine), Gaboxadol (Lundbeck/Merck).
SWOT analysis of notable upcoming products.

About the Author
Dr Cheryl Barton is a highly regarded independent consultant with over 14 years research and business analysis experience. Following her senior research positions in academia and seven years with Merck, in which she was responsible for research projects ranging from Alzheimer's Disease to schizophrenia, Dr Barton joined Dutch investment bank ABN Amro NV as a senior equity analyst. At ABN Amro NV she was lead analyst on major pharmaceutical companies such as Roche and Sanofi-Synthélabo, and assessed the potential impact of new drug development on European Stocks.

In 2002, Dr Barton established a consulting business to provide independent, tailor-made, pharmaceutical thematic research to investment houses and pharmaceutical companies. The research reports combine independent scientific analysis with patient-based models to forecast the potential sales growth of key drugs in clinical development.

For full details, please email jenniferc@cmsinfo.com

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