CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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Scope of the analysis

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Datamonitor insight into the cytotoxics market

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Of the five major ATC-defined cytotoxic classes, vinca alkaloids, which include the taxanes, represent the largest in terms of sales. BMS's Taxol (paclitaxel) once dominated not only the class but also the cytotoxic market as a whole. However, because of its patent expiry, it has lost its leading position to its rival drug, Aventis's Taxotere (docetaxel). In order to maintain the dominance, Aventis will need to continue to market the drug aggressively in the light of generic and reformulated paclitaxel entering the market

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Eli Lilly's Gemzar (gemcitabine) is the leading antimetabolite in the class, achieving sales of $708m in 2002. Datamonitor expects the drug's sales to increase to over $2 billion by 2008. However, by 2010, when its patent expires, it is expected to see a significant decline in its sales. To minimize the negative impact, Lilly should devise sales optimization strategies such as developing oral gemcitabine and/or investigating its synergy with Alimta (pemetrexed)

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Colorectal cancer will be the main growth area of the cytotoxic market, driven by the sales of Roche's Xeloda (capecitabine), Sanofi-Synthelabo's Eloxatin (oxaliplatin) and Aventis/Pfizer's Camptosar/Campto (irinotecan), which will account for nearly 40% of the total cytotoxic market by 2011. Pharmaceutical companies with pipeline products seeking to enter the colorectal cancer market should conduct clinical trials in combination with these cytotoxic agents to ensure a smooth entry into the market

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Key metrics

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Key market events during 2003/2004

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Taxotere gains ground on Taxol

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Taxol's patent expiry in the EU

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The rise of Eloxatin

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Alimta and Gemzar as a team

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Approval of Erbitux is Camptosar's gain

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CHAPTER 2 MARKET SEGMENTATION & DEFINITION

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Market definition

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Epidemiology of cancer

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Lung cancer

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Colorectal cancer

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Breast cancer

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Hormone-refractory prostate cancer (HRPC)

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CHAPTER 3 GLOBAL MARKET OVERVIEW

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Key findings

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Global cytotoxics market data

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Key L1 Cytostatics market data

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L1C Vinca alkaloids market data

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L1B Antimetabolites market data

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L1X All other cytostatics market data

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L1D Cytostatic antibiotics market data

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L1A Alkylating agents market data

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Global market forecast

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Cytotoxic class forecast

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Gemzar: analysis

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Xeloda: analysis

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Temodar: analysis

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Ellence: analysis

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Navelbine: analysis

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Taxotere: analysis

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Taxol: analysis

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Paraplatin: analysis

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Eloxatin: analysis

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List of Tables

Table 1: Key parameters of the cytotoxic market to 2011

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Table 2: Forecast key currently marketed cytotoxic products, 2003-11

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Table 3: Incidence of major tumor types in the seven major markets between 2003 and 2010

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Table 4: Prevalence of major tumor types in the seven major markets between 2003 and 2010

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Table 5: Global sales in the cytotoxics market by ATC class, 2001-02

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Table 6: Key L1 Cytostatics fact file

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Table 7: Global sales of the leading branded L1 cytostatic drugs, 2001-02

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Table 8: L1C Vinca alkaloids fact file

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Table 9: Global sales of the leading branded L1C vinca alkaloid drugs, 2001-02

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Table 10: L1B Antimetabolites fact file

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Table 11: Global sales of the leading branded L1B antimetabolite drugs, 2001-02

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Table 12: L1X All other cytostatics fact file

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Table 13: Global sales of the leading branded L1X 'All other cytostatic' drugs, 2001-02

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Table 14: L1D Cytostatic antibiotics fact file

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Table 15: Global sales of the leading branded L1D cytostatic antibiotic drugs, 2001-02

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Table 16: L1A Alkylating agents fact file

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Table 17: Global sales of the leading branded L1A alkylating agents, 2001-02

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Figure 1: Global cytotoxics market forecast, 2003-11

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Table 18: Global cytotoxics market forecast, 2003-11

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Table 19: Vinca alkaloids sales forecasts to 2011 ($m)

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Table 20: Antimetabolites sales forecasts to 2011 ($m)

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Table 21: Other cytostatics sales forecasts to 2011 ($m)

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Table 22: Cytostatic antibiotics sales forecasts to 2011 ($m)

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Table 23: Alkylating agents sales forecasts to 2011 ($m)

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Table 24: Gemzar key facts

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Table 25: Gemzar events, 2002-03

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Table 26: Xeloda key facts

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Table 27: Xeloda events, 2002-03

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Table 28: Temodar key facts

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Table 29: Temodar, 2002-03

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Table 30: Ellence key facts

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Table 31: Ellence, 2002-03

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Table 32: Navelbine key facts

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Table 33: Navelbine, 2002-03

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Table 34: Generic vinorelbine

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Table 35: Taxotere key facts

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Table 36: Taxotere, 2002-03

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Table 37: Taxol key facts

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Table 38: Taxol 2002-03

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Table 39: Estimated launch dates of reformulated paclitaxel

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Table 40: Paraplatin key facts

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Table 41: Paraplatin 2002-03

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Table 42: Eloxatin key facts

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Table 43: Eloxatin 2002-03

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Table 44: Camptosar key facts

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Table 45: Camptosar 2002-03

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Table 46: Results of Phase III trial of Alimta versus Taxotere in second-line treatment of recurrent NSCLC

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Table 47: Alternative scenario forecast for Camptosar

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Table 48: Best-case scenario forecast for Eloxatin in lung cancer

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Table 49: Worst-case scenario forecast for Eloxatin in lung cancer

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Table 50: Total, cancer and cytotoxic performance of the cytotoxic market leaders, 2002

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List of Figures

Figure 2: Vinca alkaloids sales forecasts to 2011 ($m)

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Figure 3: Antimetabolites sales forecasts to 2011 ($m)

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Figure 4: Other cytostatics sales forecasts to 2011 ($m)

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Figure 5: Cytostatic antibiotics sales forecasts to 2011 ($m)

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Figure 6: Alkylating agents sales forecasts to 2011 ($m)

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Figure 7: SWOT analysis for Gemzar

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Figure 8: Global sales forecasts for Gemzar, 2003-11

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Figure 9: SWOT analysis for Xeloda

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Figure 10: Global sales forecasts for Xeloda ($m), 2003-11

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Figure 11: SWOT analysis for Temodar

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Figure 12: Global sales forecasts for Temodar, 2003-11

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Figure 13: SWOT analysis for Ellence

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Figure 14: Global sales forecasts for Ellence, 2003-11

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Figure 15: SWOT analysis for Navelbine

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Figure 16: Global sales forecasts for Navelbine, 2003-11

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Figure 17: SWOT analysis for Taxotere

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Figure 18: Global sales forecasts for Taxotere, 2003-11

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Figure 19: SWOT analysis for Taxol

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Figure 20: Global sales forecasts for Taxol, 2003-11

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Figure 21: SWOT analysis for Paraplatin

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Figure 22: Global sales forecasts for Paraplatin, 2003-11

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Figure 23: SWOT analysis for Eloxatin

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Figure 24: Global sales forecasts for Eloxatin, 2003-11

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Figure 25: SWOT analysis for Camptosar/Campto

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Figure 26: Global sales forecasts for Camptosar, 2003-11

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Figure 27: Global sales forecasts for Alimta for mesothelioma, 2003-11

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Figure 28: Global sales forecast for Alimta for NSCLC, 2003-11

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Figure 29: Alternative scenario forecast for Camptosar

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Figure 30: Best-case scenario forecast for Eloxatin in lung cancer

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Figure 31: Worst-case scenario forecast for Eloxatin in lung cancer

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Figure 32: Comparative attractiveness of the cytotoxics market, 2003-11

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Figure 33: Total, cancer and cytotoxic performance of the cytotoxic market leaders

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Figure 34: Key cytotoxic global market share, 2002

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Figure 35: Lifecycle of Taxol

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